Ten years after the Paris Agreement demonstrated a profound collective will to address global emissions, the world’s efforts to confront the accelerating climate crisis reached a pivotal moment at the UN Climate Conference (COP30) in the Amazon. Emissions continue to rise as multilateralism is met with more and more challenges.

While COP30 participants acknowledged the Paris Agreement’s past successes, the proceedings highlighted a difficult reality: the political will needed for momentous multilateral agreement remains elusive. Instead, progress was characterized less by formal consensus and more by achievements outside the official process. These “outside track” successes included initiatives led by Brazil, Colombia, and the Netherlands to make progress on transitioning away from fossil fuels; the launch of the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF); new momentum on carbon pricing and markets; and various efforts related to non-CO2 gases. Parties did agree on a goal to triple adaptation finance, but they did not MANAGE a robust response to countries’ climate action plans also known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

The next Climate Conference (COP31) will be a partnership between Türkiye and Australia. A central question will be if there is a “new normal” or if the formal process can revive ambition and multilateralism. Is the WORLD pivoting permanently toward a model where the most significant climate action happens on the outside track?